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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • I think there is a lot this fails to capture because certain things are unprecedented. Michigan’s GOP is in utter disarray and it isn’t the only one. And overturning Roe v Wade has energized the left and disillusioned whatever center remains.

    Now these facts are baked into the polling already, so obviously that’s a big concern, but I believe this means polling is too far right across the board. I think who makes up likely voters has shifted. RvW drew in younger voters and I think now that they are engaged they will remain so.

    Time will tell. I’ve seen far less Trump support this year than I did in 2020, which yeah is anecdotal, but I think it’s an indicator. Of course, even if I’m correct, Michigan isn’t going to carry the election alone, and it looks like the rest of the rust belt is further to the right.














  • Sure but that isn’t the point of my question, and treads perilously close to the area I’m trying to avoid. I’m not interested in the political decision here, but the facts that purport to underlie it.

    I can’t argue in favor of this action citing facts that not only seem to be bullshit, but also threaten to undermine the narrative that people don’t need guns for protection because violent crime is so low.

    Here we have the surgeon general saying gun violence is so bad it’s an emergency. How is that going to play with people who hoard guns out of xenophobic paranoia over their own safety?